Primorsky Krai: 18 bn ₽ approved and never spent
A P-7 study with a D8 calculation note: a third year of deficit, suspended publication of demographic series, and a point of loss named by the audit authority — the release of spending limits.
English edition. Authorial judgement based on published official data. Not investment or legal advice. The full text is published in Russian.
Subject: a regional administrative circuit treated as a system for converting budget resource into the condition of its population. The study pairs a P-7 protocol with a D8 calculation note.
| Quantity | Value | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| Budget growth, 2024–2025 | +10% | A |
| Gross regional product | ≈ +20% | A |
| Investment | +8% | A |
| Births | eight-year low | A |
| Deaths | +10% | A |
| Government debt, Q1 2026 | ×1.5 | A |
| Budget deficit, 2026 plan | 35.2 bn ₽ (from 7.7 bn ₽) | A |
| Approved but unspent expenditure | over 18 bn ₽ | A |
Finding K-1 · Resource inflow rises while the object degrades [grade A]
Budget, gross regional product and investment all grew, while births fell to an eight-year low and mortality rose by ten per cent. The region absorbs more energy and simultaneously degrades. The gap between what the system measures itself by and what it actually is constitutes the subject of this study.
Finding K-2 · The point of loss is inside the perimeter of control [grade A]
More than 18 bn ₽ was approved and left unspent while the deficit stood at 11.2 bn ₽. The regional government also declines to draw available credit. Spending limits are set below existing obligations, work is pushed into the following year and payables inflate. Between the approval of funding and the completion of a project there is a leakage point: the actual release of limits. It is identified, measurable and lies within the perimeter of control.
Finding K-3 · Outcome validation has been switched off [grade A]
Publication of vital demographic data has been suspended since early 2025. The governor’s 2025 report contains no birth statistics and reports mortality only. A system that does not validate outcomes cannot correct course; the absence of the series is itself the finding. Condition of refutation: resumption of publication accompanied by a reduction in unspent limits.
Verdict
The region does not require additional money — 18 bn ₽ already failed to reach the finish line. It requires a functioning allocation mechanism and a genuine population feedback sensor. A full P-7 would produce a lag map across procedural stages and a project passport for a conductivity-rate pilot. Without logged timelines for limit allocation, contracting, payment and commissioning, and without a double-blind survey of discretionary bottlenecks, this remains a hypothesis with a positive preliminary verdict.
Grade A sources: regional budget law and amendments; the governor’s annual report; federal statistics service releases. Grade B: business press, 2026.