Case studies of specific circuits
Four desk studies, each built the same way. The measurement passport is fixed before calculation, so that thresholds and horizons cannot be tuned to a desired conclusion. Sources are graded by reliability: grade A is issuer disclosure, a court act or a regulator decision; grade B is the business press; grade C is investment-community estimate, excluded from aggregate figures. Arithmetically derived values are separated from those assigned by convention, and the unmeasured remainder is listed explicitly. Every finding carries the condition under which it is considered overturned; an objection should address that condition. Full texts are published in Russian; the summaries below are in English.
Samolet Group: 97.7% of EBITDA goes to debt service — a P-0 desk study
Desk study of the public circuit of Samolet Group under protocol P-0: E-ROI of 1.02 at the non-arbitrage boundary, three debt conv
Positive Group: five figures for one year’s result — a P-0 desk study
Five reported measures of the 2024 result differing by a factor of four and a half; debt service consumes a third of operating ene
Primorsky Krai: 18 bn ₽ approved and never spent
A P-7 study with a D8 calculation note: a third year of deficit, suspended publication of demographic series, and a point of loss
KAMAZ: market share rises to 33% while output falls — a P-1 desk study
Operating cash flow of +50.3 bn ₽ against a net loss; interest expense doubling to 28.6 bn ₽; three of five barrier classes lying
Russian refining: reverse excise and a migrating constraint
A strategy stress test of the Russian refining circuit: a fiscal metric that improves as the object degrades, five of seven bets w
Solar plant 9.9 MW: a review of an investment package
Public edition of a review of a real inbound request: fifteen findings on the package presented, an assessment of tokenisation as