Samolet Group: 97.7% of EBITDA goes to debt service — a P-0 desk study
Desk study of the public circuit of Samolet Group under protocol P-0: E-ROI of 1.02 at the non-arbitrage boundary, three debt conventions in one public field, market capitalisation at half the level of corporate debt.
English edition. Authorial judgement based on disclosed data. Not investment advice. Every finding carries the condition under which it is considered overturned; an objection should address that condition. The full text is published in Russian.
Subject: the public circuit of a listed developer treated as a system that converts resource into result. Unit of account: money of consolidated reporting. Horizon: 2024 to the first half of 2026. The measurement passport was fixed before calculation. The motivational component of resistance is not measured in desk mode, and no expert assignment substitutes for it.
| Quantity | 2024 | 2025 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 339.1 bn ₽ | 339.2 bn ₽ (flat) | A |
| EBITDA | 109.2 bn ₽ | 88.7 bn ₽ (−19%) | A |
| Interest expense | — | 86.7 bn ₽ | A |
| Net result | 8.2 bn ₽ | −23.0 bn ₽ | A |
| Corporate debt | — | 223 bn ₽ (mid-2026) | B |
| Market capitalisation | — | ≈ 110 bn ₽ | B |
Finding S-1 · Debt service absorbs the operating result almost entirely [grade A]
Interest expense of 86.7 bn ₽ against EBITDA of 88.7 bn ₽ leaves 2.0 bn ₽, which is 2.3 per cent of the operating result. E-ROI computed on this pair equals 1.02: a circuit that returns what it consumes. This is the non-arbitrage boundary. Formally the enterprise operates; structurally it produces no surplus for anything other than servicing the construction accumulated by past decisions about scale. Condition of refutation: a positive net result maintained for two consecutive periods at unchanged cost of debt service.
Finding S-2 · Three conventions of debt coexist in one public field [grade A/B]
Total debt including project financing, corporate debt net of escrow balances, and net debt are quoted interchangeably in public discussion, differing by a factor that exceeds any of the year-on-year changes being debated. The perimeter of the count is not declared alongside the number. This is the first instance of a defect that recurs in every subsequent study: declaring the perimeter of a figure is not a norm of public speech in any of the circuits examined.
Finding S-3 · Capitalisation is half the corporate debt [grade B]
Market capitalisation of roughly 110 bn ₽ against corporate debt of about 223 bn ₽ means the market prices the equity below the obligation it stands behind. The structural cause lies less in the end of subsidised mortgage lending or escrow requirements and more in the overgrown corporate structure — more than three hundred legal entities — and the weakness of financial control over it. Condition of refutation: a reduction in the number of consolidated entities accompanied by a fall in interest expense.
Verdict of the binding-constraint test
The binding constraint lies in the cost and volume of debt, which sits outside the perimeter of a conductivity intervention. A conductivity product with effect-based payment is therefore not admissible for this object. The lawful configuration is a strategy stress test with kill criteria and a survivability audit. Improving throughput in a link that is not the bottleneck does not move the objective function; this follows directly from the theory of constraints inherited by the corpus.
Grade A sources: issuer consolidated IFRS statements for 2025, published 24.04.2026; operational disclosures. Grade B: business press, February–June 2026; Bank of Russia key rate decision of 19.06.2026; Moscow Arbitration Court case А40-210214/2025. Grade C: investment-community estimates, excluded from aggregate figures.